Emerging issue: trade and tariffs

United States agriculture has long depended on trade, with 2025 agricultural exports projected at $170.5 billion. Many sectors rely on exports to sell a significant portion of their crop or livestock products, and without them, large numbers of farms would go out of business. However, the U.S. has recently faced an agricultural trade deficit, which has grown significantly since 2022. In 2025, agricultural imports are forecast to reach $219.5 billion, outpacing exports by $49 billion. The deficit is driven by lower grain export prices and rising imports of fruits and vegetables. 

U.S. import tariffs can both help and hurt agriculture. Tariffs on products like potash, where 90% of the U.S. supply comes from Canada and domestic production is limited, would increase farm input costs. On the other hand, tariffs could help U.S. agriculture sectors facing strong foreign competition, such as fruit and vegetable growers. 

The biggest concern for U.S. agriculture is retaliatory tariffs. When the U.S. imposes tariffs, other countries often respond with their own, frequently targeting agricultural products. This is because U.S. farm exports are major imports for many countries, making them an easy target. Our trading partners also know that U.S. agriculture has a strong voice in Washington D.C. and know agriculture will fight back against retaliatory tariffs that harm farm prices, thereby forcing the U.S. to negotiate. 

Impacts of tariffs can be significant. A recent study of Chinese tariffs that were imposed in 2018-2019 and removed in 2020 showed that a 25% tariff imposed by China would decrease the price of soybeans by $0.50/bushel and corn by $0.25/bushel. These projected are for China alone, our 3^rd largest agricultural export market. The price declines would only compound if tariffs were imposed by Mexico and Canada, our 1^st and 2^nd largest agricultural export markets. 

The Constitution grants Congress the power to regulate foreign commerce, impose tariffs, and collect revenue. Congress can and has delegated this authority to the President in limited situations. Many of the tariffs threatened and imposed in 2025 have been done unilaterally by the President under the emergency authority given by Congress. What authority has been delegated by Congress has increasingly been a topic of discussion by Congress itself and has been challenged in the Court system. 

Questions to consider  

• The American Farm Bureau Federation has significant policy on international trade. Does this policy give the proper guidance to Congress and the Administration to advance the interests of our members?
• In what situations (if any) should tariffs be used? If used, should they be applied with a broad brush or more surgical in nature?
• Are ample protections in place should retaliatory tariffs target US agriculture? AFBF policy 252 Par. 3 addresses assistance in this case. Is this sufficient?
• How much authority should be retained by Congress over tariffs vs. delegated to the President and under what situations? 

Policy references 

AFBF Policy #252 International Trade 

Additional Resources 

Agricultural Trade Projections

Corn and soybean China tariff impact study

Congressional vs. presidential tariff authority